Date of Publication

8-20-2025

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Physics with Specialization in Medical Instrumentation

Subject Categories

Physics

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Physics

Honor/Award

Outstanding Thesis

Thesis Advisor

Edgar A. Vallar

Defense Panel Chair

Maria Cecilia D. Galvez

Defense Panel Member

Floro Junior C. Roque
Jazzie R. Jao

Abstract (English)

The urbanization of a settlement can make its environment have higher temperatures compared to its nearby rural areas, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island effect. This study aims to forecast the effect of the urban heat island on near-surface air temperature in select highly-urbanized cities of Luzon, Philippines: Angeles, Baguio, Manila, Olongapo, Pasay, and Quezon. The simulation used is the Regional Climate Model (RegCM5), developed by the International Center for Theoretical Physics. Model evaluation was first conducted in order to evaluate the accuracy of the model to simulate. The results of the sensitivity runs were compared to weather station data from the Integrated Surface Dataset (ISD), maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. A hindcast from 2013-2018 and forecast from 2027-2031 was conducted using best settings from model evaluation, and a SARIMA model was applied to hindcast data in order to see trends in data. Results show among the sensitivity runs, the run using EIN15 as its ICBC with 8 km resolution performs the best, showing mean bias, mean absolute error, and root mean square error values below ±2.0 ◦C, 2.0 ◦C, and 3.5 ◦C, respectively. Furthermore, the run exhibits high IOA (≥ 0.8) in all cities except Olongapo. Simulation shows that more urbanized cities have a lower difference between daytime and nighttime temperature compared to less urbanized ones. Maximum urban heat island intensity can range from 4.1 ◦C to 7.7 ◦C from 2013 to 2018, and 4.2 ◦C to 8.2 ◦C from 2027 to 2031 for the studied cities. SARIMA forecasts to have the mean near-surface air temperature of cities increase by 0.9 ◦C to 1.0 ◦C by 2030. The study overall shows that RegCM5 can be accurate in simulating urban heat, but can be improved with finer resolution and coupling with other models, and that the urban heat island effect will be greater by 2030.

Abstract Format

html

Abstract (Filipino)

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Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Electronic

Keywords

Urban heat island--Philippines--Luzon

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Embargo Period

8-20-2028

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Available for download on Sunday, August 20, 2028

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