An application of Monte Carlo analysis: A simulation study

Date of Publication

1973

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Business Administration

Subject Categories

Oil, Gas, and Energy

College

Ramon V. Del Rosario College of Business

Department/Unit

Decision Sciences and Innovation

Thesis Adviser

Eduardo Ledesma

Defense Panel Chair

Antonio Lukban

Defense Panel Member

Eduardo Francisco
Sebastian Arrastia
Eduardo Ledesma

Abstract/Summary

The queueing problem at the oil wharf of Batangas Refinery has growth to an amount beyond the economical operating level. This prompted the refinery management to request the writer to explore deeply into the problem. The problem arose when the plant throughout was increased by 10,000 BBL/day. This resulted in more tankers and barges to dock-in thereby producing higher wharf occupancy. Tankers have to wait for a berthing space. Batangas refinery is often penalized for its inability to service the tankers on time. Tanker owners charged 2,922 to 40,200 pesos per day of delay. Since the cost of delay is directly associated with waiting time, the solution then is to reduce it. Their technical alternatives are open for consideration - to add an additional service facility, to reduce the service time by increasing shipping rates, or a combination of the above. Monte Carlo simulation was used in this study in determining the waiting time because the mathematical methods offered by authorities on the subject are too complex to be applied. The accuracy of the method was checked by comparing the result of the study against the actual waiting time. Accuracy was about 87 percent. In the final analysis, the study revealed that it would be more economical for Batangas Refinery to add a new service facility, i.e., to extend the existing service wharf.

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Print

Accession Number

TG00303

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Physical Description

103 leaves, 28 cm. ; Typescript

Keywords

Petroleum refineries--Philippines--Batangas; Monte Carlo method; Bulk queues

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