Forecasting Metro trail transit 3 ridership using univariate box-Jenkins methodology

Date of Publication

2009

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science

Subject Categories

Statistics and Probability

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Mathematics and Statistics

Thesis Adviser

Imelda E. De Mesa

Defense Panel Chair

Regina M. Tresvalles

Defense Panel Member

Shirlee R. Ocampo
Paolo Y. Bautista

Abstract/Summary

This paper, through the Univariate Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) technique, described the variation in and forecasted the ridership of the Metro Rail Transit 3 (MRT3). Using the historical plot, this study revealed that there was an increasing trend and a seasonal component. Based on the quartic root and natural logarithmic transformed series with first regular-first seasonal differencing, a best fitted model to describe the ridership: zt = 0o - 01at-1 -- 01,12at-12+ 0101,12at - 13 + at was generated. The integration of seasonal and nonseasonal moving average model was able to obtain the forecast values for 2009.;" The model identified was adequate for the actual value of ridership was found between the confidence interval of the forecasted values. Implication includes the application of time series analysis in general and Univariate Box-Jenkins technique in particular, on railway transportation management in the Philippines."

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Print

Accession Number

TU15077

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Physical Description

vi, 70, A39 leaves, illustrations, 28 cm.

Keywords

Local transit--Ridership--Philippines--Forecasting; Box-Jenkins forecasting

Embargo Period

3-30-2021

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