An application of intervention analysis on the monthly inflation in the Philippines
Date of Publication
2019
Document Type
Bachelor's Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science
Subject Categories
Physical Sciences and Mathematics
College
College of Science
Department/Unit
Mathematics and Statistics
Abstract/Summary
The primary objective of the study involved investigating the impact of the TRAIN Law and the 2015-2016 El Niño phenomenon on the inflation rate in the Philippines using intervention analysis. Results showed that the inflation rate in the Philippines posed nonstationarity in the mean requiring differencing to achieve stationarity. Based from the patterns shown by the autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function of both pre-intervention models, an AR(1) model was fitted. Using SAS software, an intervention model was fitted to both models. Based on the intervention model for the TRAIN Law, the researchers observed that the TRAIN Law has a significant effect on the mean change of the inflation rate in the Philippines. It is also the same for the El Niño phenomenon, it was also found to have a significant effect on the inflation rate of the Philippines as well, indicating temporary structural changes in the series.
Abstract Format
html
Language
English
Format
Electronic
Accession Number
CDTU017671
Shelf Location
Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall
Recommended Citation
Friginal, A. T., & Tom, A. S. (2019). An application of intervention analysis on the monthly inflation in the Philippines. Retrieved from https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_bachelors/18584