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JEL Classification System

O33, O15, L86

Abstract

This study explores the diffusion process of the internet in countries that were previously known as the U.S.S.R. and are currently divided into 15 countries. Utilizing the S-shaped logistic curves, this paper forecasts future trends in internet diffusion in these economies. Data varied in range, with each country having different time frames for similar variables. The logistic curves for each country determined the length of time of internet diffusion, maximum carrying capacity, and different stages of the diffusion process, namely, emerging, growth, maturity, and saturation. The results show that all countries have exceeded the emerging and growth phases, with 13 countries having reached the saturation point. It was also revealed that more years were utilized in the emerging phase relative to the growth and maturity phase, confirming Rogers’ thought that, even with obvious advantage, the adoption process is complex at the beginning. Further, income levels proved important to the internet diffusion trajectory of countries because high-income countries outperformed middle-income countries. Estonia emerged as the pinnacle of internet diffusion among the 15 countries for reasons related to futuristic policies and approaches to policy implementation. Telecommunication infrastructure emerged as the most important determinant of internet diffusion in a country, across all income groups, which has further important implications for policymakers.

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