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JEL Classification System

I24, D10, D58

Abstract

The impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on Thai children’s educational outcomes are examined based on a two- step analysis. First, the economic impact of the pandemic on household income is quantified by incorporating simulated

macroeconomic variables from the CGE model into a household-level data set. Next, these microsimulation results, along with the Thailand Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey data, are examined to identify the negative impact on children’s educational outcomes, using a binary logistic model. The result confirms the negative impact of Covid-19 on household incomes in all income classes. Unfortunately, households with children are hit harder than others in the same income class. To make matters worse, households with children in the lower- and middle-income classes are more likely to be relegated to a lower income quintile. The change in household income brings about undesirable children’s educational outcomes: decreased attendance; increased dropouts; and inadequate literacy and numeracy skills. These outcomes tend to be exacerbated in lower-income households. The risk of children’s exposure to psychological and physical aggression at home is also explored. Evidently, the pandemic created a considerable number of child victims of these abusive practices, especially among primary-school-age children.

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