Added Title
DLSU-AKI Policy Brief, 2026-04-065
College
School of Economics
Department/Unit
Economics
Document Type
Policy Brief
Publication Date
4-2026
Abstract
Global oil prices have risen sharply following the escalation of renewed geopolitical conflict and severe disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global energy shipments. From a pre-conflict level of approximately US$72 per barrel, Brent crude has surged to nearly US$150 per barrel as of mid-April 2026 (Reuters, 2026), a roughly twofold increase, as tanker attacks and fears of sustained supply disruption persist despite a large coordinated reserve release by the International Energy Agency.
For the Philippines, this matters because the country remains heavily dependent on imported petroleum and is vulnerable to external shocks in shipping, farm inputs, and food systems. Elevated global fuel prices quickly translate into higher domestic transport and logistics costs, whereas disruptions in Gulf-linked supply chains raise fertilizer prices, increasing farm production costs and placing further pressure on food prices. Roughly 98% of the Philippines’ crude oil imports and 45% of global sulfur exports used in fertilizer production pass through the Strait. For an import-dependent economy, the policy response should therefore focus not only on fuel relief but also on food logistics, farm input access, and the resilience of domestic supply chains.
These developments have revived public debate over whether the Philippines should restore the Oil Price Stabilization Fund (OPSF), suspend fuel excise taxes, or move toward re-regulation of the downstream oil industry. But the policy context has now changed materially. On March 24, 2026, EO No. 110, s. 2026 declared a state of national emergency and activated the Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food, and Transport (UPLIFT) as the government's whole-of-government response framework (Presidential Communications Office, 2026). The more relevant policy question is therefore whether the crisis should be addressed through broad price suppression or through targeted, time-bound, and coordinated emergency support.
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Recommended Citation
Tiongco, M. M., Cororaton, C. B., & Gañgan, F. D. (2026). Rising Oil Prices in the Philippines: Why a Targeted UPLIFT Response is Preferable to Broad Price Suppression. Retrieved from https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/res_aki/243
Keywords
energy prices; fuel subsidies; inflation; oil price shocks; Philippine economy; price controls; targeted transfers
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