Preparing for Shortages of Future COVID-19 Drugs: A Data-Based Model for Optimal Allocation

Added Title

DLSU AKI Policy Brief, Volume XIII No. 1

Authors

Charlie L. Sy, De La Salle University, Manila
Kathleen Aviso, De La Salle University, Manila
Christina D. Cayamanda, De La Salle University, Manila
Anthony F. Chiu, De La Salle University, Manila
Rochelle Irene Lucas, De La Salle University, Manila
Michael Angelo Promentilla, De La Salle University, Manila
Luis F. Razon, De La Salle University, Manila
Raymond R. Tan, De La Salle University, Manila
John Frederick Tapia, De La Salle University, Manila
Ador Torneo, De La Salle University, Manila
Aristotle T. Ubando, De La Salle University-Manila
Derrick Ethelbhert C. Yu, De La Salle University-Manila

Document Type

Policy Brief

Publication Date

3-2020

Place of Publication

DLSU-Angelo King Institute, Room 223, LS building, 2401 Taft Avenue, Manila 0922

Abstract

Drugs for the treatment of Covid-19 are currently beign tested, and those that are apporved for use are likely to be in short supply due to the global scale of the pandemic. This policy brief proposes a model for optimally allocating future Covid-19 drugs to patients to minimize deaths under conditions of resource scarcity. A linear programming model is developed that estimates the potential number of deaths that may result from Covid-19 under two scenarios: with antivirals and without antivirals. It takes into account patient risk level, the severity of their symptoms, resource availability in hospitals (i.e. hospital beds, critical care units, ventilators), observed mortality rates, and share of the Philippine population. Based on simulations, the model can make actionable recommendations on how to prioritize the allocation of the drugs.

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Recommended Citation

Sy, C. L., Aviso, K., Cayamanda, C. D., Chiu, A. F., Lucas, R., Promentilla, M., Razon, L. F., Tan, R. R., Tapia, J., Torneo, A., Ubando, A., & Yu, D. (2020). Preparing for Shortages of Future COVID-19 Drugs: A Data-Based Model for Optimal Allocation. Retrieved from https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/res_aki/102

Disciplines

Chemicals and Drugs | Community Health and Preventive Medicine | Public Health Education and Promotion

Keywords

Medicine; Covid-19; pandemic; drugs; Philippines

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