Forecasting coconut production in the Philippines with ARIMA model

College

Ramon V. Del Rosario College of Business

Department/Unit

Decision Sciences and Innovation Dept

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Source Title

2nd ISM International Statistical Conference 2014

Publication Date

2015

Abstract

The study aimed to depict the situation of the coconut industry in the Philippines for the future years applying Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. Data on coconut production, one of the major industrial crops of the country, for the period of 1990 to 2012 were analyzed using time-series methods. Autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation functions (PACF) were calculated for the data. Appropriate Box-Jenkins autoregressive moving average model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model was used to forecast coconut production for the eight leading years.

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Disciplines

Industrial Organization

Keywords

Coconut industry—Philippines

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