Correlation of climatic factors and dengue incidence in Metro Manila, Philippines

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Biology

Document Type

Article

Source Title

Ambio

Volume

37

Issue

4

First Page

292

Last Page

294

Publication Date

6-1-2008

Abstract

Dengue is a serious public health problem in Metro Manila, Philippines. Increasing dengue incidence has been attributed to climate change; however, contradicting reports show inconclusive relationships between dengue and climatic factors. This study investigates temperature and rainfall as climatic factors affecting dengue incidence in Metro Manila from 1996 to 2005. Monthly dengue incidence and climatic data for Metro Manila were collected over a 10-y period (1996-2005). Climatic factors temperature and rainfall were linked with dengue incidence through regression analysis. A predictive model equation plots dengue incidence (Y) versus rainfall (X), which suggests that rainfall is significantly correlated to dengue incidence (r2 = 0.377, p < 0.05). No significant correlation between dengue incidence and temperature was established (p > 0.05). Evidence shows dengue incidence in Metro Manila varies with changing rainfall patterns. Intensified surveillance and control of mosquitoes during periods with high rainfall are recommended. © Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences 2008.

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Digitial Object Identifier (DOI)

10.1579/0044-7447(2008)37[292:COCFAD]2.0.CO;2

Disciplines

Biology

Keywords

Dengue--Philippines--Metro Manila

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