Continuity, history, and identity: Why Bongbong Marcos won the 2022 Philippine presidential elections

College

College of Liberal Arts

Department/Unit

Political Science

Document Type

Article

Source Title

Pacific Affairs

Volume

96

Issue

1

First Page

85

Last Page

104

Publication Date

2023

Abstract

In May of 2022, Bongbong Marcos won a commanding 59% of the vote to become the President of the Philippines. His victory was, on some level, shocking to scholars and analysts of Philippine politics. As a result, a plethora of different theories have been proposed attempting to explain why Marcos won. In this paper, we use nationally representative survey data to explore which factors predict (and do not predict) voting intention for Marcos. We find that a) support for Duterte, b) positive perceptions of the late President Ferdinand Marcos and Martial Law, and c) ethnic (linguistic) identity are strong predictors of voting for Bongbong Marcos. On the other hand, age, education, and income are not. Consequently, theories based on continuity, coalition, history, and identity provide the most leverage on the question of why Bongbong Marcos won the election.

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Disciplines

Political Science

Keywords

Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.; Presidents—Philippines; Presidents—Philippines—Election—2022; Philippines—Politics and government—1986-

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