Forecasting inaccuracies in transportation projects in selected South East Asian countries

College

Gokongwei College of Engineering

Department/Unit

Civil Engineering

Document Type

Conference Proceeding

Source Title

Proceedings of the 2nd ASEAN Civil Engineering Conference

First Page

392

Last Page

402

Publication Date

2010

Physical Description

11 pages

Abstract

Past studies show that transportation infrastructure projects often perform poorly as compared to the forecasts made before they were constructed in that projected costs are underestimated while forecasted demand are overestimated. In this research, a database of transportation projects from Thailand and the Philippines was assembled to verify whether inaccuracies in cost forecasts exist in the region. From the analysis, it has been verified that there are no significant differences in cost forecast errors between road and bridge projects. However, the errors found in transportation projects in Thailand are significantly different in magnitude from those in the Philippines. The level and frequency of cost forecast errors in the two countries were examined as well. Although findings from this study can contribute in improving the method of cost forecasting in South Est Asia, they should be used and interpreted with caution due to the small sample size and limited types of projects considered in the study.

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Disciplines

Automotive Engineering

Keywords

Transportation--Southeast Asia--Forecasting; Feasibility studies; Project management—Evaluation

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