Date of Publication

2025

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science

Subject Categories

Mathematics

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Mathematics and Statistics Department

Thesis Advisor

Nelda A. Nacion

Defense Panel Chair

Vio Jianu C. Mojica

Defense Panel Member

Shera Marie P. Boon

Abstract/Summary

With Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) being the leading cause of morbidity in Region IV-A (CALABARZON) since 2019, identifying spatial patterns and potential socio-economic risk factors would aid in improving regional infection control. The univariate spatial distribution of ARI incidence recorded by the Department of Health (DOH) across CALABARZON municipalities and cities (n=142) was explored. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) was conducted to identify the effect of socioeconomic factors, specifically the PhilHealth registry counts, number of public health facilities, number of healthcare workers, population density, and poverty incidence rate, on the ARI incidence of municipalities and cities. Positive spatial autocorrelation was found, with clustering of high incidence rates in the eastern part of Laguna and surrounding Quezon areas, and clustering of low incidence rates in Cavite and Batangas. GWR was found to be significant in producing a model for ARI incidence. Poverty incidence rate and healthcare facility counts were found to directly affect ARI incidence in the southern part of Quezon, while the population densities have an indirect but little effect in eastern parts of Laguna and surrounding Quezon municipalities. Using significant socioeconomic predictors, Poverty incidence and population densities had spatially varying effects on ARI incidence across the region, while the number of health facilities, while significant, had no spatially varying effect on ARI incidence. The GWR models provided better performance compared to ordinary least square (OLS) regression models suggesting that considering spatial variation improved model fit. With these results, other factors that affect ARI incidence need to be further investigated.

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Electronic

Keywords

Respiratory infections--Philippines--Calabarzon

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Embargo Period

8-12-2026

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Available for download on Wednesday, August 12, 2026

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