Date of Publication

8-2025

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science

Subject Categories

Mathematics

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Mathematics and Statistics Department

Thesis Advisor

Robert Neil F. Leong

Defense Panel Chair

Frumencio F. Co

Defense Panel Member

Eduardo L. Cruz

Abstract/Summary

The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the tourism sector, consequently affecting the broader Philippine economy. This study analyzes Philippine tourism expenditure and tourism sector employment trends from 2000 to 2023, focusing on the impact of the pandemic. Using Vector Autoregression, and Change-Point Analysis, this research investigates the
dynamics between expenditure and employment, to characterize trends and identify structural shifts, particularly differentiating the periods before and
during the pandemic. The findings aim to inform evidence-based strategies that support the tourism sector's resilience and effective recovery planning.
The methods employed in this study have been shown to be useful in other related studies regarding tourism-related trends. Based on the change-point analysis conducted, 2019, 2020, and 2022 are found to be key timings of structural shifts in the data because of the pandemic. In addition, outbound tourism expenditure, employment, and total gross value added are affected
by each other as shown by Vector Autoregression, yet due to Granger-causality, outbound expenditure and employment do not significantly impact total gross value added. Moreover, the results from this study may
provide input to the tourism sector in promoting service offerings that benefit both the traveling public and the domestic economy.

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Electronic

Keywords

Tourism--Philippines; COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020-2023--Philippines; Expenditures, Public

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Embargo Period

8-11-2025

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