Assessing energy security cost of the transport sector

Date of Publication

2018

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering

College

Gokongwei College of Engineering

Department/Unit

Mechanical Engineering

Thesis Adviser

Neil Stephen A. Lopez

Defense Panel Chair

Jose Beinvenido Manuel M. Biona

Defense Panel Member

Aristotle T. Ubando
Jeremias A. Gonzaga
Alvin Y. Chua
Jonathan R. Dungca

Abstract/Summary

The security of crude oil in terms of quantity and price poses a global economic threat. The Philippines is still a net importer of crude oil wherein about 98% of the total supply comes from highly concentrated and politically unstable countries. The present study investigates the economic impact of unsupplied crude oil based on fuel supply and transport risks. Fuel supply pertains to the probability of failure in the extraction stage based on import share, political stability, and sustainability of supply. Fuel transport covers the probability of failure in the transportation stage based on pirate attacks, weather disturbances, and geopolitical tensions. The probabilities were aggregated and multiplied to the economic loss through input-output modelling. The model developed evaluates the energy security cost as a product of the probability of disruption and the economic damage. A case study was conducted by computing the energy security cost of the Philippines during 2011-2015 using crude oil as the baseline fuel. An average value Php 18,842.36 per barrel of oil was recorded. Results were validated by comparing other life cycle components wherein average values of 0.1892 and 0.1580 USD/PKM were obtained for gasoline and diesel light-duty vehicles, respectively. The developed methodology may be utilized in evaluating and comparing the energy security cost of other transport fuels.

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Electronic

Accession Number

CDTG007496

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Physical Description

1 computer disc ; 4 3/4 in.

Keywords

Petroleum products--Prices--Philippines; Power resources--Costs

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