Success probability of an n-step process with n independent step probabilities

Date of Publication

2014

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Mathematics

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Mathematics and Statistics

Thesis Adviser

Ederlina G. Nocum

Abstract/Summary

A process is defined as a series of actions or steps taken in order to achieve a particular end. There are a wide range of studies involving di erent types of processes such as in the case of engineering, business, biology, and information theory. This paper is focused on a new type of process, called Process Based Strategy Model and is the rst study of its kind. The process speci cally looks into the success probability of an n-step process with n independent step probabilities. In our model, there are exactly n steps that lead to the desired goal Xn such that a success in step i leads to step i + 1. However, a failure in step i only leads to goal Xi{u100000}1 and thereby, a failure in achieving the end goal Xn. We want to maximize the success probabilities of each step in order to assure the ful llment of the end goal Xn. The paper discusses an analysis of probability values associated with the steps so as to achieve a desired goal. We also look into another method of achieving the end goal Xn by replacing a certain step of the process with one or more steps resulting into a higher overall success probability. We also consider several functions which possibly model real-life variables to correspond to success probabilities. Lastly, we apply the process based strategy model on a scenario which shows how elements of a population are moved through the process with the concepts of saturation and cycles.

Abstract Format

html

Format

Electronic

Accession Number

CDTG005664

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Physical Description

one computer optical disc.

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