A time series approach on the effect of climate variability on Davao's coconut production
Date of Publication
2009
Document Type
Bachelor's Thesis
Degree Name
Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science
Subject Categories
Statistics and Probability
College
College of Science
Department/Unit
Mathematics and Statistics
Thesis Adviser
Imelda E. De Mesa
Defense Panel Chair
Rechel G. Arcilla
Defense Panel Member
Shirlee R. Ocampo
Michelle G. Tan
Abstract/Summary
Coconut is one of Philippines' major exports and is a major source of income and livelihood for many Filipinos. However, studies on the effect of climate changes on coconut production in the Philippines are limited. The researchers used time series analysis to study the effect of climate variations, specifically of temperature and rainfall on coconut production in Davao Region from 1994-2008. A univariate AR(3) model for quarterly coconut production was obtained and compared with transfer function models that relate coconut production with rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. For each climate variable, an ARIMA model was fitted that served as pre-whitening filters in identifying transfer function models. The univariate AR(3) model and the transfer functions were compared in terms of the accuracy of their predicted values. The univariate AR(3) model and the transfer function using rainfall as an input series were the best models in terms of predicting coconut production. Using the best models, coconut production was forecasted for the next six years.
Abstract Format
html
Language
English
Format
Accession Number
TU15129
Shelf Location
Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall
Physical Description
xv, 134, A-57 leaves, illustrations (some color), 28 cm.
Keywords
Coconut--Climatic factors--Philippines; Time-series analysis
Recommended Citation
Fuentes, J. R., & Ling, C. C. (2009). A time series approach on the effect of climate variability on Davao's coconut production. Retrieved from https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/etd_bachelors/5216
Embargo Period
4-4-2021