A time series approach on the effect of climate variability on Davao's coconut production

Date of Publication

2009

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science

Subject Categories

Statistics and Probability

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Mathematics and Statistics

Thesis Adviser

Imelda E. De Mesa

Defense Panel Chair

Rechel G. Arcilla

Defense Panel Member

Shirlee R. Ocampo
Michelle G. Tan

Abstract/Summary

Coconut is one of Philippines' major exports and is a major source of income and livelihood for many Filipinos. However, studies on the effect of climate changes on coconut production in the Philippines are limited. The researchers used time series analysis to study the effect of climate variations, specifically of temperature and rainfall on coconut production in Davao Region from 1994-2008. A univariate AR(3) model for quarterly coconut production was obtained and compared with transfer function models that relate coconut production with rainfall, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. For each climate variable, an ARIMA model was fitted that served as pre-whitening filters in identifying transfer function models. The univariate AR(3) model and the transfer functions were compared in terms of the accuracy of their predicted values. The univariate AR(3) model and the transfer function using rainfall as an input series were the best models in terms of predicting coconut production. Using the best models, coconut production was forecasted for the next six years.

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Print

Accession Number

TU15129

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Physical Description

xv, 134, A-57 leaves, illustrations (some color), 28 cm.

Keywords

Coconut--Climatic factors--Philippines; Time-series analysis

Embargo Period

4-4-2021

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