A cost-benefit assessment of implementing CNG buses in Philippine road transport using the long-range energy alternatives planning-integrated benefits calculator

Date of Publication

5-2019

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Physics Minor in Economics

Subject Categories

Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Physics

Thesis Adviser

Edgar A. Vallar

Defense Panel Chair

Ma. Cecilia D. galvez

Defense Panel Member

Liz C. Silva
Gwen B. Castillon

Abstract/Summary

The EDSA thoroughfare serves as the principal access of many Filipino commuters and vehicle owners to other urban areas in the metro. Considering the dense population concentrated in EDSA every day, it is unavoidable for such small region to be congested and not be polluted. In this case, the people who use EDSA daily are likely susceptible to the danger brought by air pollution. Thus, an assertive sentiment towards mitigating these emissions through efficiency in transport activity is the ambition to behold.

In this study, the Long-Energy Alternative Planning - Integrated Benefits Calculator (LEAP-IBC) is utilized in examining the different emission levels resulting from the scenarios created which in this case are the following - baseline, increasing diesel buses, increasing CNG buses, and the policy scenario by the Department of Energy on replacing diesel buses with CNG buses. The baseline scenario assumes that no mitigation policy is being implemented over the course of time. The base year and the end year in this study are 2015 and 2050, respectively. All scenarios are assumed to take place a year after the base year. Furthermore, the IBC feature of the software also generated the benefits in terms of pollutant concentrations of PM2.s, PM10, and BC.

A supplemental cost-benefit assessment was performed in this research in order to evaluate whether DOE's project is promising and will provide societal benefits amidst new costs that will be incurred due to its unfolding presence in the market.

As expected from the Business-As-Usual (BAU) or baseline scenario, with increasing transportation demand the amount of emissions are also on the rise. At 2015 the PM2.s and PM10 emissions are measured at 22.428 metric tonnes while the BC emissions for the same year is at 16.148 metric tonnes. By 2050, the PM2.s and PM1oemissions are already at 75.468 metric tonnes while BC is at 54.337 metric tonnes.

Increasing just the diesel buses until 2050 also increases the emissions level of PM2.s and PM10 and BC amounting to 81.438 metric tonnes and 58.635 metric tonnes, respectively. On the other hand, increasing the number of CNG buses by the same amount of diesel buses in the first scenario contributed only a very small fraction of emissions to the baseline.

The third scenario, which is the conversion policy, implied a decline on the emissions level of PM2.s, PM10, and BC every year. PM2.s and PM1ofor 2050 decreased from 75.468 metric tonnes (BAU) to 17.824 metric tonnes while BC decreased from 54.337 metric tonnes (BAU) to 11.924 metric tonnes also by 2050.

The Net Present Value (NPV) obtained from the cost-benefit assessment throughout the whole project lifespan of the implementation of CNG buses amounting to Php 53.6 Billion indicates that the project is economically viable in the long run. Moreover, the calculated Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) is 3 .11 % which provides enough margin of safety before the breakeven-point of the project is attained.

Abstract Format

html

Accession Number

TU23330

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Keywords

Atmospheric carbon dioxide—Philippines—Measurement; Atmospheric carbon dioxide—Environmental aspects—Philippines; Carbon dioxide mitigation—Philippines—Cost effectiveness

Embargo Period

2-2-2023

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