An application of dynamic Bayesian networks in the context of Philippine rice food security

Date of Publication


Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science

Subject Categories

Physical Sciences and Mathematics


College of Science


Mathematics and Statistics Department


Food security is the state where the physical, social and economic access of all people at all times to adequate, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and preferences in order to attain an active and healthy lifestyle (FAO, 2006). In the past 15 years (2003-2018), the number of Filipino families who rated themselves as hungry rose from 7.0% to 13.3% (Social Weather Station, 2019). In the aim of determining if changes in rice production and rice price in the Philippines cause food insecurity, the degree of impact of factors affecting Philippine rice production and Philippine rice retail price were forecasted. This study uses dynamic Bayesian network to determine the decision support for food security in connection with possible fluctuation in rice industry. Results show that a tremendous number of typhoons in the Philippines and insufficient area for rice to be harvested are the causes of the downfall in rice production which prevent the Philippines from achieving a 100% rice self-sufficiency. Furthermore, world rice price, world rice supply and the integration of Philippine rice consumption and Philippine total supply bring about an increase in the retail price of rice in the while the high amount of rice imports in the PH impact the rice industry by causing a decrease in the Philippine rice retail price.

Abstract Format






Accession Number


Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall

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