Correlates of influenza disease activity in the information environment: An exploratory approach in the Philippine setting

Date of Publication

2016

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Statistics Major in Actuarial Science

Subject Categories

Statistics and Probability

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Mathematics and Statistics

Thesis Adviser

Robert Neil F. Leong

Abstract/Summary

Influenza poses substantial burden. The virus affects an individual's respiratory tract and may lead to serious complications resulting to death. Thus, a reliable system is essential to track influenza activity. The discovery of internet-based surveillance systems or information environment is fundamental since traditional influenza surveillance systems are sometimes unavailable or insufficient and are usually untimely and costly. Inspired by this, the study explored correlations between traditional influenza case and death surveillance systems in the Philippines, from 2011-2015, and the information environment through Google search activity. Bayesian hierarchical statistical frameworks were applied to perform the task, both with and without explicit considerations of influenza season. Results show that Google search volumes are more correlated to recorded number of cases as compared to counts of deaths, invariant to seasonality. These results may be useful in developing early warning systems for monitoring influenza activity.

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Electronic

Accession Number

CDTU021085

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Physical Description

1 computer disc ; 4 3/4 in.

Keywords

Influenza; Information filtering systems; Surveillance detection; Bayesian statistical decision theory

Embargo Period

5-11-2021

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