![[Paper] Sustainability, Environment, and Energy (SEE)](../../../../assets/md5images/29c704a00e426c0ce942437c8c70e83b.png)
Beyond the Thermostat: Modeling the Relationship between Temperature Variability and Electricity Consumption in Metro Manila
Document Types
Paper Presentation
Research Theme (for Paper Presentation and Poster Presentation submissions only)
Sustainability, Environment, and Energy (SEE)
School Name
De La Salle University, Manila
Track or Strand
Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM)
Research Advisor (Last Name, First Name, Middle Initial)
Ocampo, Shirlee, R.
Start Date
25-6-2026 10:30 AM
End Date
25-6-2026 12:00 PM
Zoom Link/ Room Assignment
Online - https://zoom.us/j/92594857524 Meeting ID: 925 9485 7524 | Passcode: research
Abstract/Executive Summary
High ambient temperatures and the cooling needs of dense urban populations are increasingly contributing to the rising electricity use in tropical megacities. Nevertheless, empirical studies on the statistical relationships between local climatic factors and electricity grid energy supply in Metro Manila, the economic capital of the Philippines, show a significant gap. This paper investigates the relationship between temperature variability and electricity use in Metro Manila based on locally calibrated Cooling Degree Days (CDD) indices. The main objectives were to determine the strength of the CDD–energy delivery relationship, identify the best base temperature at which electricity demand is sensitive to heat, and evaluate how economic disruptions caused by the pandemic affected the relationship. Data on monthly electricity energy delivery from the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) were analyzed, and CDD values were calculated using PAGASA meteorological station data. Base temperatures ranged from 18°C to 30°C over the 2013–2024 period. Simple Linear Regression Models showed a strong positive correlation between CDD and energy delivery, with the best relationship in terms of R² at 24°C and 25°C. In 2020–2021, a unique phenomenon called “lockdown ” was observed, where the correlation between heat and energy delivery weakened due to government-imposed quarantine measures, with R² at 0.08. The results show that environmental heat is a major contributor to grid volatility, but the most important moderator is economic activity. The findings offer locally pertinent evidence that is critical in informing climate-adaptive urban energy planning and enhancing infrastructure resilience in rapidly urbanizing tropical settings.
Keywords
Cooling Degree Days; Electricity Consumption; Linear Regression; Metro Manila; Climate Adaptation
Initial Consent for Publication
yes
Statement of Originality
yes
Beyond the Thermostat: Modeling the Relationship between Temperature Variability and Electricity Consumption in Metro Manila
High ambient temperatures and the cooling needs of dense urban populations are increasingly contributing to the rising electricity use in tropical megacities. Nevertheless, empirical studies on the statistical relationships between local climatic factors and electricity grid energy supply in Metro Manila, the economic capital of the Philippines, show a significant gap. This paper investigates the relationship between temperature variability and electricity use in Metro Manila based on locally calibrated Cooling Degree Days (CDD) indices. The main objectives were to determine the strength of the CDD–energy delivery relationship, identify the best base temperature at which electricity demand is sensitive to heat, and evaluate how economic disruptions caused by the pandemic affected the relationship. Data on monthly electricity energy delivery from the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) were analyzed, and CDD values were calculated using PAGASA meteorological station data. Base temperatures ranged from 18°C to 30°C over the 2013–2024 period. Simple Linear Regression Models showed a strong positive correlation between CDD and energy delivery, with the best relationship in terms of R² at 24°C and 25°C. In 2020–2021, a unique phenomenon called “lockdown ” was observed, where the correlation between heat and energy delivery weakened due to government-imposed quarantine measures, with R² at 0.08. The results show that environmental heat is a major contributor to grid volatility, but the most important moderator is economic activity. The findings offer locally pertinent evidence that is critical in informing climate-adaptive urban energy planning and enhancing infrastructure resilience in rapidly urbanizing tropical settings.
https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/conf_shsrescon/2026/BoA_SEE/12
