Empirical Evidence from NARDL Analysis: An Asymmetric Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Sector in Pakistan

Authors

Asma Fiaz, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Shahid Waseem Malik, Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Nabila Khurshid, Comsats University, Islamabad, PakistanFollow
Ahsan ul Haq Satti, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad

Abstract

In the literature for Pakistan, the asymmetric effect of the exchange rate on the agricultural sector stands ignored. Current research is designed to investigate the possible asymmetric effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the agricultural sector using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework. The data set comprises a period of 1970 to 2019, which is taken from the Ministry of Finances and handbook of the State Bank of Pakistan. The variables used in the study are real effective exchange rate, agricultural production, inflation, primary export, government investment, terms of trade, imports, and exports. The ADF unit root test confirmed that the research series is a combination of stationary and non-stationary variables. The study, therefore, uses the ARDL approach, but the focus is to investigate the asymmetric effect; thus, the NARDL technique is also applied. The NARDL results suggest that positive movements have lesser impacts than those of negative movements in the exchange rate on the agriculture sector both in short run and in the long run.

Recommended Citation

Fiaz, Asma; Malik, Shahid Waseem; Khurshid, Nabila; and ul Haq Satti, Ahsan (2021) "Empirical Evidence from NARDL Analysis: An Asymmetric Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Agricultural Sector in Pakistan," Asia-Pacific Social Science Review: Vol. 21: Iss. 2, Article 13.
Available at: https://animorepository.dlsu.edu.ph/apssr/vol21/iss2/13