Date of Publication

2003

Document Type

Master's Thesis

Degree Name

Master of Science in Industrial Engineering

Subject Categories

Industrial Engineering

College

Gokongwei College of Engineering

Department/Unit

Industrial Engineering

Thesis Adviser

Jose Edgar S. Mutuc

Defense Panel Chair

Dennis T. Beng Hui

Defense Panel Member

Richard C. Li
Eric A. Siy

Abstract/Summary

A computer simulation model of the production price behavior of the Nigeria Sugar Industry is constructed using system dynamics methodology. The important factors are the interactions of land area, composite price, domestic price, refined sugar production, inventory, domestic consumption, domestic demand, export, export price, sugar-cane production, expected consumption and the mill capacity. The governing dynamic equations were programmed using the Stella (dynamic models) and Simulation System software. The model reproduced the past history of the system adequately with respect to R2 the coefficient of determination which measures the degree to which two series covary. R2 for land area yielded 0.74619, for refined sugar production, 0.7631094, for composite price, 0.7767861, for domestic price, 0.78752. Indeed parameter insensitivity is an important dimension of a model that should be compared with the real system to enhance confidence in the model (Forrester and Senge 1980), (Graham, 1980). This model provides the Nigerian National Policy makers with a dynamic model to investigate the impact of their policies (formed/unformed) with respect to the total view of the Nigeria Sugar Cane Industry (N.S.C.I.) and all agricultural commodities. System boundaries were properly selected to represent the objectives, interacting variables are effectively connected, and the pertinent parameter coefficients were critically chosen.

Abstract Format

html

Note

Title on screen.

Language

English

Format

Electronic

Accession Number

CDTG003546

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F Henry Sy Sr. Hall

Physical Description

1 computer optical disc ; 4 3/4 in.

Keywords

Sugar--Prices; Computer simulation; Sugarcane industry--Nigeria

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Embargo Period

2-16-2022

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