A system dynamics study on the dynamic evacuation decisions of coastal communities in Region IV-A

Date of Publication


Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Industrial Engineering

Subject Categories

Emergency and Disaster Management | Operations Research, Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering


Gokongwei College of Engineering


Industrial Engineering

Thesis Adviser

Jose Edgar Mutuc

Defense Panel Chair

Charlle Sy

Defense Panel Member

Emil Fernandez


Evacuation during disasters is a critical process that decreases the exposure of vulnerable entities to the forthcoming hazard. Various disaster management institutions have placed great significance in evacuation planning. However, despite having the necessary disaster evacuation plans and response protocol, disaster evacuation processes still fail to achieve consistent high evacuation percentages. Aside from the management aspects of evacuation planning, the behavioral response from the affected population also proves to be a crucial part iJJ dealing with disaster crises. It is worthwhile to investigate why people opt to disregard evacuation orders despite persistence by governing bodies. The study aims to determine what factors drive the dynamic behavior of average annual evacuation percentage in the coastal communities along Laguna de Bay. Using a system dynamics methodology, the study analyzes year to year interactions between variables that influence evacuation decisions. The model integrates hard and soft variables in order to see how managerial decision making, as well as the unique aspects of the geographical area, could influence the behavioral responses of vulnerable individuals. The dynamic model constructed will help in the better understanding of behavioral decisions in response to disaster protocols. Results of the study suggest that the dynamism of the evacuation percentage is primarily caused by the changing willingness of coastal residents to comply to evacuation orders. Sensitivity tests of different variables that affect the willingness to evacuate were conducted and plausible alternatives involving the manipulation of significant control variables were proposed for the improvement of the evacuation percentage behavior through time.

Abstract Format






Accession Number


Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall


Emergency management; Evacuation of civilians

Embargo Period


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