Assessment of municipal solid waste management scenarios in Metro Manila using the long-range energy alternatives planning-integrated benefit calculator (LEAP-IBC) system

Date of Publication


Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Physics Minor in Economics

Subject Categories

Environmental Health and Protection


College of Science



Thesis Adviser

Edgar A. Vallar

Defense Panel Chair

Ma. Cecilia D. Galvez

Defense Panel Member

Liz C. Silva
Gwen B. Castillon


Discharge of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) into the atmosphere and the handling of non-declining municipal solid wastes (MSW) persist to be a huge problem for developing countries. However, these resources have been studied to be viable sources of clean energy.

This study integrates the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for methane flow rate estimation in the software Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning-Integrated Benefit Calculator (LEAP-IBC) System to estimate and project the methane emissions corning from the waste generated by Metro Manila, which are disposed in sanitary landfills. It aims to analyze the environmental impacts of the emissions coming from the non-energy sector through the use of the IBC feature of LEAP and by developing two scenarios, which includes the baseline and methane recovery. The baseline scenario acts as the business as usual scenario where the assumption is that no methane emission is recovered or captured. On the other hand, the methane recovery scenario represents the solid waste management undertaken to counter the emissions. The base and end year for the study are 2010 and 2050 respectively.

Cost-Benefit-Analysis (CBA) is employed to analyze the efficiency and viability of the chosen mitigation scenario. To establish the relationship between methane emissions and the economy, statistical and programming software Stata 15 is used wherein fixed effects and random effects panel data regression analysis is performed from the 3 .8 million metric tonnes of municipal solid waste generated in 20 I 0, 97.30 million metric tonnes of methane emissions is produced and the emissions continue to increase after this year under the Baseline scenario. It was also seen in the scenario that the cities of Quezon, Manila, and Caloocan account for the biggest methane emissions.

As expected from the methane recovery scenario, the methane emissions declined from 127.036 to 81.303 million metric tonnes by 2025, from 135.358 to 64.972 million metric tonnes by 2030, and from 150.554 to 69.254905 million metric tonnes by 2040.

For the 40-year projection of the study under the 100-year global warming potential analysis, a total of l 0,249 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent is avoided in the methane recovery compared to the BAU. Furthermore, a maximum of0.019 °C temperature increase can also be avoided with the said mitigation scenario.

The CBA results showed that the methane recovery for electricity generation is viable since the Net Present Value (NPV) throughout 2010-2050 amounts to P52 billion and the Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) is 2.10.

From the fixed effects and random effects panel data regression analysis, it reinforces and asserts that the solid waste management be really improved by means of the methane recovery technology in order for the methane emissions to decrease.

Abstract Format






Accession Number


Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall


Atmospheric methane—Philippines—Metro Manila; Refuse as fuel; Sequestration (Chemistry); Clean energy; Refuse and refuse disposal—Philippines—Metro Manila

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