Title

Forecasting Philippine mortality rates using the Hyndman-Ullah methodology

Date of Publication

2014

Document Type

Bachelor's Thesis

Degree Name

Bachelor of Science in Mathematics

Subject Categories

Physical Sciences and Mathematics

College

College of Science

Department/Unit

Mathematics and Statistics Department

Abstract/Summary

Mortality is a key factor in influencing several of a countrys sectors such as economic, social security, and insurance industries. However, due to changes in the human lifestyle brought about by factors such as advancements in technology, mortality has not remained constant through time. From this fact arose the need for regular accurate mortality modeling and forecasting. Studies on Philippine mortality have often been difficult due to the unavailability and inadequacy of data. This paper proposes the use of a nonparametric and functional data approach on 1980- 2009 Philippine death rates, as proposed by R. J. Hyndman and M. S. Ullah in 2007. Through this robust method, mortality data is first smoothed from noise, consequently addressing the issue regarding data grouped in age intervals. Functional principal component analysis is performed, fitting a basis expansion model to the smoothed data. Using a robust ARIMA method, the model coefficients are then forecasted which lead to mortality rate forecasts. With these, more comprehensive analysis and interpretation of mortality behaviors over age and time are achieved.

Abstract Format

html

Language

English

Format

Electronic

Accession Number

CDTU019203

Shelf Location

Archives, The Learning Commons, 12F, Henry Sy Sr. Hall

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